The Brexit vote saw a flight from the British pound and Euro into safer currencies such as the US dollar and Japanese yen. The US dollar appreciated by approximately 10% against the pound and US markets were off 3%-4%, and a bit more for the NASDAQ after the dust had settled last Friday. US GDP is more closely tied to the performance of its currency rather than the performance of its equities markets due to the effects on exports. When the USD appreciates, its exports are more expensive to buyers overseas, reducing the demand for US products. A 10% rise in the USD projects to reduce US GDP by as much as 0.4% over the course of a year. Considering that the US economy has been plagued by slow growth like most of the developed world, 40 basis points of GDP contraction can be significant. A 10% drop in the US equities markets would lower US GDP by closer to just 0.1%, and unemployment would increase by just 5-7 basis points.We all know that blighted economic prospects negatively affect incumbent political parties – see the years 1980 or 2008 in the US, for example. The Brexit vote makes it more likely that markets will be dodgy for the remainder of the year. But will it be influential enough on the domestic economy to change the outcome of the election? As it stands currently, I think the Democrats will win the election based on the evidence over four months out. The effects of economic slowdown are going to have to be palpable enough to Americans for the election to swing several points in the Republicans favor. The Brexit vote is probably more of a win for the Republicans than the Democrats, but their campaign will need to build momentum and focus on winning key swing states such as Ohio and Florida to come out ahead in November.